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AS03: Has telecoms lost its leaders?

"There just aren't the characters in the game anymore…"

Three years ago there were no fewer than 10 telecoms bosses in silicon.com's Agenda Setters top 50 poll (including a Bernie Ebbers - whatever happened to him?). So what's so special about the quartet who were worth including this time? Tony Hallett reports.

With a record 14 of this year's Agenda Setters deemed to be wearing some kind of political hat it was clear at an early stage that certain types of individual would lose out - and it looks like those involved with fixed and mobile telecoms are one such group.

Let's get on to those who didn't make the cut in a moment because what this does mean is that those who made the cut must deserve to be there.

Highest up this year is a relative newcomer in terms of worldwide influence. When Arun Sarin took over as CEO of Vodafone this summer it marked a significant handing over of the baton at the world's largest mobile operator. Besides the small matter of his mighty empire building, outgoing Sir Christopher Gent was also a previous poll winner, topping AS2000.

Now make no mistake, Sarin is an accomplished telecoms executive with years at Pacific Telesis / AirTouch - where he first encountered and impressed Vodafone - under his belt. He may be more of a manager than deal-maker, better suited to the phase Vodafone and the market is entering, but at 13 he leads the telecoms pack.

Ajay Chowdhury, VC and AS03 panellist, said: "Wireless data is happening, it will continue to happen and it will grow very fast. I've picked Arun Sarin because Vodafone just happens to be the biggest operator in the world and the fact that Vodafone live! kick started [mobile data]."

Not gilt-edged reasons, perhaps, but then it's also not hard to imagine this well-respected Indian ably heading up any number of world-class organisations.

A man in a similar position to Sarin is Keiji Tachikawa, NTT DoCoMo CEO. This giant Japanese operator has spread its wings and convinced a number of operators that its i-mode mobile data service has relevance even in a world of faster networks. He's down from 27 to 37 but still commands respect in his industry and will ultimately affect the masses across three continents with the decisions he makes.

And then we come to two men, both based in the UK. When Ben Verwaayen took the reins at BT there were those who doubted the Dutchman's sanity. But, as they say, no guts no glory, and although he has seen the UK operator beat a retreat around the world, his focus on a home market, marrying IT and comms and - most famously - broadband roll out could serve as a blueprint for beleaguered and indebted telcos around the world.

Richard Allan, Liberal Democrat MP for Sheffield Hallam and ICT spokesman and a second-year Agenda Setter panellist, said: "He's high on my list. He came in and came up with a model for broadband expansion. The only way [BT] could do the price cuts is to get one million customers by end of the year, otherwise Oftel would have said they were loss leading. Everyone at BT said he couldn't do it. That was genuine leadership."

Clearly the new bosses at France Telecom and Deutsche Telekom - both of whom, like dozens of other telco bosses, don't make the top 50 this year - are watching closely. There were those that doubted Verwaayen's world stature but it is precisely because he has created a successful model that he's influential.

And he's liked to. "He talks to customers" and "He responds to your emails!" were remarks from other two other impressed panellists.

Meanwhile David Levin is the CEO of Symbian, the never-a-dull-moment mobile OS venture that counts most of the world's major handset vendors as shareholders. It's been in the news most recently because of a deal with DoCoMo and the pulling out of Motorola, which is concentrating more on Linux and even Microsoft's smart phone offering.

However, Symbian stands a chance of creating the de facto standard for the majority of smart phones. Remember, a few years back even Bill Gates in one of those famously not-so-secret Microsoft memos identified Psion, a founding and still key Symbian shareholder, as a major threat. In many ways the ball is in Levin's court, up to 17 from 35 last time.

One of his aces, of course, is his and Symbian's close relationship with handset daddy Nokia. That makes it all the more surprising that one of this year's major absentees is Nokia CEO Jorma Ollila. A major restructuring of units at the Finnish company was announced after the votes were cast this year, so rumours about possible successors didn't influence the panel. After showing at 23 last year and a high of 4 the year before that, it's hard to account for Ollila's absence. If predictions that Nokia eventually acquires Symbian are accurate, that downward trend may yet be reversed.

Finally, two other losers of note and something to bear in mind. Yet again John Chambers, Cisco CEO, fails to get a mention, despite telcos once again looking to the largest network equipment company for innovation and products. And someone else who once had a role at Cisco, Openwave CEO Don Listwin, also drops off the list - perhaps over-shadowed by those running Symbian and Microsoft.

Indeed, Microsoft's increased importance in telecoms is one reason for Gates reaching 2. But overall, too many panellists felt that - outside some mobile areas - telecoms is all about reliable service delivery. And that just isn't setting any agendas.


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